UNDP 2026 Economic Profile: Ethiopia's Export Boom Meets Investment Slump

As reported by The Reporter Ethiopia

Summary

• The UNDP's February 2026 Quarterly Economic Profile for Ethiopia highlights a striking divergence: export earnings jumped from $3.3 billion in the first half of 2025 to $5 billion during the same period in 2026, a 53% surge driven primarily by gold. Gold export revenues nearly doubled to $2.56 billion year-on-year, fueled by 29.5% higher volumes and approximately 45% higher international prices.
• However, the report warns of a deepening investment slump. Gross national savings fell from nearly 30% of GDP in 2018 to around 20% in 2025, while the investment rate dropped even more steeply from 35.3% to 20.1% over the same period. The UNDP warns these trends suggest reduced fiscal space and capital formation that could constrain future growth, job creation, and structural transformation.
• Agriculture remains the backbone of the economy at 31% of GDP, growing at 7.5%. Manufacturing growth reached 10.3%, signaling early signs of import substitution. Most gold exports are sourced from artisanal miners, underscoring the need for governance and formalization.
• For BirrValue users, the export boom is positive for FX supply in the short term, but the investment slump is a longer-term concern. More export dollars flowing through banks supports competitive conversion rates today. Compare rates on [BirrValue](/banks) and take advantage of favorable conditions while export momentum remains strong.