NBE Monetary Policy Committee Holds Rates and Credit Cap Steady, Warns of Middle East Risks

As reported by Capital Newspaper

Summary

• The National Bank of Ethiopia held its sixth Monetary Policy Committee meeting on March 21, 2026, and decided to keep both the policy rate and annual credit growth caps at current levels. The decision reflects the MPC's priority of sustaining single-digit inflation, which Ethiopia has maintained since December 2025.
• Headline inflation stood at 9.7 percent in February 2026. Food inflation fell to 10.8 percent, down from 14.6 percent a year earlier. Non-food inflation eased to 8.1 percent, compared with 15.6 percent in the prior year. Real GDP grew 9.2 percent in fiscal year 2024/25, exceeding the eight-year average of 7.5 percent.
• Despite the positive domestic data, the MPC flagged rising global risks. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could push oil prices higher and disrupt supply chains, creating upward pressure on domestic inflation. The committee agreed to reconvene by late April, or earlier if conditions require, to evaluate whether additional policy measures are needed.
• For BirrValue users, the decision to maintain tight monetary policy is aimed at keeping inflation under control and preserving the purchasing power of the birr. While credit caps limit bank lending, they also help anchor the exchange rate. Monitor rates on [BirrValue](/banks) and watch for any MPC updates that could shift policy direction.