Inflation Rebounds, So the Credit Cap Stays: What to Expect From the NBE

As reported by Capital Newspaper

Summary

• Ahead of the National Bank of Ethiopia's Monetary Policy Committee meeting in late June 2026, market observers expected the Committee to hold its current stance and keep the cap on bank credit growth in place. The reason is that inflation rebounded to 13.4 percent in May 2026 after falling to 9.7 percent in February 2026, which reduces the room to loosen policy even though some money market interest rates had eased.
• Under its program with the IMF, Ethiopia committed to phasing out the credit growth cap gradually rather than removing it all at once. The plan is to raise the cap in steps, after it was set at 24 percent, and to fully eliminate it by December 2026, guided by indicators such as the path of inflation, the growth of private credit, banking sector liquidity, and asset quality. A renewed rise in inflation makes the Committee more cautious about moving quickly.
• For BirrValue users, the credit cap affects how much banks can lend and how tight overall liquidity is, which feeds into deposit rates and foreign exchange pricing. A steady, cautious stance points to continued discipline in official channels. Compare bank rates on [BirrValue](/banks) and review [Send Money](/send-money) options before converting.