Ethiopia Revises GDP Growth Forecast Upward to 10.2 Percent as Reforms Take Hold

As reported by Bloomberg

Summary

• Ethiopia revised its gross domestic product growth projection upward to 10.2 percent for the fiscal year ending July 2026. The economy last expanded by more than 10 percent in 2016/17. The revision reflects the impact of IMF-backed reforms that eased foreign exchange constraints and strengthened export performance.
• Key drivers include a liberalized foreign currency trading regime, record coffee prices, and a dramatic rise in official gold exports. Gold shipments increased to nearly 39 tons in the last fiscal year, up from 4 tons the year before, as previously smuggled gold was channeled into formal markets. Merchandise export earnings hit $5.1 billion in the first six months of fiscal year 2025/26.
• The government also opened the banking and telecommunications sectors to foreign investors, attracting new capital and competition. Ethiopian Airlines passenger numbers rose significantly in the first half of the fiscal year, adding to the broader economic recovery.
• For BirrValue users, double-digit GDP growth and strong export performance increase the supply of foreign currency in the banking system. More dollars flowing through official channels supports better exchange rates for remittance recipients and converters. Compare rates across banks on [BirrValue](/banks) to take advantage of improved FX availability.