Is the Birr Headed to 165 Per Dollar? Here Is What the Numbers Say

As reported by Capital Market Ethiopia

Summary

• The Ethiopian birr has weakened steadily over the past year across all major benchmarks. Private banks recorded a depreciation of about 19.5 percent, the National Bank of Ethiopia indicative rate moved about 18 percent, and the NBE auction weighted average showed about an 18.6 percent depreciation. The NBE indicative rate for the US dollar was near 156.83 birr on April 20, 2026, while the parallel market rate stood roughly 15 to 20 percent above the official bank rate.
• Analysts project the birr to stabilize within a range of 160 to 165 per dollar by the close of the 2025/26 fiscal year in June 2026. They point to large NBE liquidity injections through bi-weekly auctions and the FXD/04/2026 directive as factors that have reduced volatility since the July 2024 float.
• For BirrValue users, a gradually weakening birr means each dollar converts to more birr over time, which can help remittance recipients, but it also reflects ongoing inflation pressure. Because rates differ across banks and move daily, compare rates on [BirrValue](/banks) and check [Send Money](/send-money) to lock in the best value when you convert.